March 11, 2021
Recently, due to the tight production capacity of Samsung, Hynix, and Micron, the DRAM market is in short supply and the DRAM market is the first to enter the upward cycle. However, due to the large number of suppliers, the market competition for NAND Flash is more intense than that of DRAM. Driven by, there is also a stop-fall signal.
Domestic memory manufacturers actively expand production
With the fluctuations in the memory market, the domestic memory industry has gone through production in 2019, mass production and sales in 2020, and stable mass production and active expansion in 2021.
In terms of NAND Flash, as the main force in conquering NAND technology in China, YMTC started mass production of 64-layer 3D NAND flash memory in September 2019, with a yield rate of 90%, and released 128-layer 3D NAND flash memory in April 2020. Both production capacity and output are in the upgrading stage.
When the production capacity of the first phase of the Wuhan memory base was rapidly climbing, the second phase of the Yangtze River Storage project officially started construction in June 2020, and the estimated monthly production capacity of the two phases of the project will reach 300,000 units.
According to TrendForce's global NAND Flash market data for the third quarter of 2020, Samsung, as the leader of flash memory, has a 33.1% global share. The other six companies are Kioxia, Western Digital, SK Hynix, Micron and Intel in order. Although the share left to other flash memory manufacturers is only 1.5%, Yangtze Memory has the highest share, which is expected to exceed 1%.
In terms of DRAM, according to the Hefei Investment Group, as of the end of 2020, the Hefei Changxin 12-inch memory wafer manufacturing base project has reached 40,000 wafers/month production capacity ahead of schedule, and started construction of 60,000 wafers/month production capacity. The key leap from mass production to mass sales.
TrendForce predicts that as a new DRAM manufacturer, Hefei Changxin Storage will increase the amount of film production more aggressively than existing competitors. In the first quarter of 2020, Changxin Storage’s production volume was 10,000 pieces/month, but by the fourth quarter, its production volume had rapidly increased to 45,000 pieces/month. By the fourth quarter of 2021, it is expected that Changxin Storage’s production volume will be Reach 85,000 pieces/month, which will surpass Nanya Technology (71,000 pieces/month), which currently ranks fourth.
According to insiders' forecast, Changxin Storage will be more advanced in 2021 (17nm process DRAM chips), and its pre-production will reach full capacity in 2022, and its global share is expected to reach double digits.
For China's memory industry, it is basically at a zero state before 2019. From filming to mass production, it is a breakthrough from 0 to 1. As the products officially enter the market, the production capacity of Yangtze River Storage and Changxin Storage is also With rapid expansion, China's memory industry will also reach the stage from 1 to N.
Industry chain companies have entered the game
From 0 to 1, in order to ensure smooth mass production, manufacturers need more mature technology and leading suppliers. From 1 to N, more upstream and downstream enterprises in the industrial chain are required to join and establish safety. Reliable domestic storage industry chain.
In the new round of memory expansion, the demand for semiconductor equipment is also exploding, which is also driving domestic equipment manufacturers to deploy memory devices. In the latest fixed-increased fund-raising R&D project, China Microelectronics has deployed a number of new products to meet the needs of large production lines of 3D NAND flash memory and dynamic random access memory (DRAM).
At the same time, the proportion of YMTC's purchase of domestic equipment is also increasing year by year. According to the bidding situation of about 2500 equipment of Yangtze River Storage from 2018 to 2020 compiled by CITIC Securities, Japanese and American manufacturers still dominate, but the proportion of domestic manufacturers is increasing year by year. In 2019 Yangtze River Storage’s 1088 equipment bidding, Chinese manufacturers’ equipment accounted for 9.65%, and in 2020 Yangtze Storage’s 1107 equipment bidding, Chinese manufacturers’ equipment accounted for 14.36%, showing an upward trend. Among them, North Huachuang, China Micro, and Shengmei have won the bids for 97/45/25 units respectively, ranking in the forefront of domestic manufacturers.
In addition to equipment manufacturers, domestic semiconductor material manufacturers have already started certification. According to Jiwei, some products of Shanghai Silicon Industry’s 300mm semiconductor wafers have been certified by Yangtze River Storage and Changxin Storage; Xingfu Company, a subsidiary of Xingfa Group In the third quarter of 2020, it passed the Hefei Changxin certification test and was the first domestic electronic grade sulfuric acid company to successfully supply a 28nm process semiconductor factory in China; Nanda Optoelectronics ArF photoresist products are undergoing verification in the Yangtze River Storage; Jinhong Gas also stated that Fujian Jinhua Company customers, Yangtze River Storage and Changxin Storage are all in the certification process and are currently progressing smoothly.
In addition, Jacques Technology has become a Yangtze River Storage and Changxin storage supplier, Shanghai Xinyang is a Yangtze River storage supplier, and Jingrui shares and Haohua Technology are both Hefei Changxin suppliers.
According to industry insiders, on the whole, the domestic storage technology reserves are relatively weak, the industrial chain is not many, and the localization is also a breakthrough from zero to one. The development opportunities are relatively clear. The early layout of the industrial chain enterprises is more hopeful. Bigger.
After the stable mass production of Yangtze River Storage and Changxin Storage, the most benefited from the early deployment of packaging and testing vendors. According to previous reports from Jiwei.com, Taiwan’s Licheng, Nanmao, East China Technology and China Unigroup’s Unigroup Hongmao , Shenzhen Technology's Peyton, Tongfu Microelectronics, Huatian Technology, Changjiang Electronics Technology, Taiji Industrial's Haitai/Taiji Semiconductor, and Shenzhen Konka are all adding to the memory packaging and testing market.
According to a person in the packaging and testing industry, the memory is a standardized product with a fixed appearance. Therefore, the production line equipment does not need to be adjusted. At present, our production line needs to deal with multiple varieties of products, and it is facing equipment debugging and loss. Reduced production efficiency. However, in terms of testing, memory testing is more complicated and costly. In general, the gross profit margin of memory packaging and testing is relatively high, and the prospects are bright.
It is foreseeable that, with the rise of the domestic memory industry, it is expected to drive the continuous increase in market demand for the supporting industry chain, and enterprises that deploy early will also have many development opportunities.