January 20, 2021
Entering the third week of 2021, the keywords for storing market quotations this week are "price increase" and "stock shortage". However, due to the different strategies of memory and flash memory manufacturers, the logic behind the shortage of materials and price increases is also very different. 2021 flash memory and memory are very different, and the meaning of "lack of materials" is very different According to recent market news, this year, Samsung and SK Hynix’s investment focus will be on foundry and flash memory. The original DRAM investment is expected to be the same as in 2020. However, after Samsung converts some DRAM production lines to CIS, its DRAM Capital expenditure may be lower than last year. Therefore, the market expects that the DRAM market as a whole is in short supply, and customers are willing to pull goods. Since December last year, the price of original DRAM particles has increased by 20%-30%. Compared with DRAM, due to fiercer competition in the NAND Flash field, major manufacturers are naturally more aware of crisis. Not only are you catching up with you in investment and expansion, but also the advancement of advanced processes with higher capacity and lower costs. unambiguous. At the end of last year, Micron and SK Hynix announced the successful development of 176-layer 3D NAND. Among them, Micron was the first to achieve mass production. As we all know, the higher the number of stacked layers of 3D NAND, the higher the capacity and the stronger the cost competitiveness. According to ChinaFlashMarket data, by the middle of 2021, 1XX layer 3D NAND output will account for 35%. According to market sources, Samsung will promote the application of high-capacity products this year to reduce the price difference of high-capacity products. Now it is in the transitional stage of major flash memory manufacturers to promote the production and application of 1XX layer 3D NAND, and the investment in the previous 64 layer and 9X layer flash memory particles is relatively reduced. Especially for some industry customers, it takes a long time to switch to high-capacity products, and there will inevitably be a "window period" in the middle. However, after the transition period is over, large-scale high-capacity products enter the market, and now the tight supply situation will inevitably be eased or even completely reversed. Coupled with the two new NAND Flash factories of Samsung that have been put into production one after another, the high-capacity production capacity of the 1XX layer will "surge", and the channel market that is most sensitive to market fluctuations will take the lead. Channel customers’ willingness to solicit goods has increased, and SSD quotes in the channel market continue to increase Nowadays, the notebook and 5G mobile phone industries are in strong market demand, and server demand is gradually picking up. The original factory will definitely put more emphasis on supplying the above market. In addition, the original factory is in the transition period from the old process of 64-layer and 9X-layer to 1XX high-capacity products. It is inevitable that supply will be affected, and channel market customers are also aware of this, and their willingness to pull goods has increased. However, it is believed that as large quantities of low-cost, high-capacity flash memory particles enter the market this year, the supply shortage may be completely reversed. According to the ChinaFlashMarket quotation, channel SSD quotations rose across the board this week, with 120GB SSD quotations rising from 13.2 US dollars to 13.5 US dollars; 240GB SSD quotations rose from 21.8 US dollars to 22.5 US dollars; 480GB SSD quotations rose from 41 US dollars to 41.2 US dollars.
The industry market demand is strong, but the shortage of materials inhibits the shipment speed, the industry SSD is fine-tuned upward this week Different from the relatively high flexibility of the channel market, for some industry customers, it takes at least six months to a year to switch from the mainstream 64-layer and 9X-layer flash memory particles to the 1XX-layer particles. Therefore, the industry market is short of materials. It may be longer than the channel. In addition to the current price increase or delivery delay of power management chips, touch ICs, PCBs, etc., it is reported that the delivery time of some suppliers has been extended from the original 6-8 weeks to 12-14 weeks. In terms of demand, the industry market can be described as strong. First of all, the demand for notebooks has not diminished. Recently, the Xinchuang market has also accelerated shipments. In addition, according to industry chain news, the Xinchuang market has accelerated its shipment speed this year, which is expected to be 1.5 times that of last year. about. Under the influence of supply and demand, the industry market also ushered in a slight fine-tuning this week. According to ChinaFlashMarket’s quotation, the 128GB PCIe SSD price rose from US$19.8 to US$20 this week; the price of 256GB PCIe SSD rose from US$30.2 to US$30.5; the price of 512GB PCIe SSD rose from US$51.2 to US$51.5; the price of 128GB SATA SSD increased from US$51.2 The price of 256GB SATA SSD rose from US$28.5 to US$29; the price of 512GB SATA SSD rose to US$49.8. The latest quotation of SSD in the industry market The memory market continues to grow, and the price of some DDR particles has increased by more than 10% For the DRAM market, the industry generally expects that there will be a shortage of supply this year, so customers are chasing prices for replenishment. In addition, rising sales of 5G mobile phones, picking up demand for servers, and accelerating shipments of Xinchuang have made the memory market rise again this week. According to ChinaFlashMarket's quotation, this week DDR4 4Gb (256Mbx16) particles rose from 1.65 US dollars to 1.75 US dollars; DDR4 4Gb (512Mbx8) particles rose from 1.65 US dollars to 1.85 US dollars, an increase of 12.1%; DDR4 8Gb (512Mbx16) particles increased from 3.3 The US dollar rose to 3.5 US dollars; DDR4 8Gb (1024Mbx8) quotations rose from 3.1 US dollars to 3.3 US dollars; DDR4 16Gb (2048Mbx8) quotations rose from 5.7 US dollars to 6 US dollars. Latest quotation of DDR particles In the channel memory market, DDR4 UDIMM 8GB 2666 prices rose from US$29 to US$30.5 this week; DDR4 UDIMM 16GB 2666 prices rose from US$56.5 to US$58.5; DDR4 UDIMM 32GB 2666 prices rose from US$113 to US$117. The latest quotation of memory in the channel market In the industry memory bar market, the quotation of DDR4 SODIMM 4GB 2666 rose from US$16.5 to US$17; the quotation of DDR4 SODIMM 8GB 2666 rose from US$28.8 to US$30; the quotation of DDR4 SODIMM 16GB 2666 rose from US$55 to US$58. The latest quotation of the industry market memory With the continuous advancement of 5G network construction, sales of 5G smartphones continue to rise. According to data from the Institute of Information and Communications Technology, in the first 11 months of 2020, China's 5G mobile phone sales reached 144 million units, accounting for 51.4% of total sales. This is the first time that 5G sales surpassed 4G models. From the perspective of the global market, Gartener predicts that about 35% will be 5G models in 2021, and by 2024, the 5G market share will soar to 60%. On the supply side, due to the tight capacity of memory manufacturers, prices of low-power memory products have also partially increased this week. According to the ChinaFlashMarket quotation, LPDDR4X 48Gb quotation rose from 18.5 US dollars to 19 US dollars; LPDDR3 16Gb quotation rose from 9.1 US dollars to 9.2 US dollars; LPDDR3 8Gb quotations rose from 4.2 US dollars to 4.5 US dollars.